W​eather From Nick's Window

First Warn Forecast: Monday, January 9, 2017
Meteorologist Nick Palisch

.Potential Winter Storm for Thursday Night-Sunday.

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.Let's talk about the near term forecast then we will talk about the winter storm potential for the weekend.

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.Today look for mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 40s...Breezy at times out of the south around 11 and gust to 20..

.Tonight mostly cloudy skies with rain developing after midnight. Temperatures will fall to the lower 40s then climb overnight. Breezy overnight with winds out of the south around 13 and gust to 24.

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.Tuesday look for that chance of rain to continue with highs in the upper 50s...Winds gusty at times out of the south around 14 mph and gust to 30 mph.

.Rain ends late in the day and skies clear...Lows in the mid 30s. Winds shift to the west around 7mph.

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.Wednesday is the calm before the storm...Mild with highs around 60... A mix of sun and clouds... Wednesday night temperatures will fall to around 50 then climb overnight...

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.Thursday look for rain and highs in the mid 50s... Now, we get into the complexity of a forecast...Colder air falls into the region and it looks like at this point that the rain will change to snow Thursday night... Lows near 30.

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.Friday snow is likely with a wintry mix over southeast Missouri... Highs in the lower 30s...Lows in the upper 20s... Friday night rain, freezing rain, sleet possible as warm air rides aloft.

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.Saturday the potential for freezing rain/sleet/rain.. Highs in the mid 30s...Lows near 30...

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.Sunday rain/freezing rain possible with highs around 40. Lows in the upper 30s.

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.Monday and Tuesday of next week look wet and mild...Highs in the mid 40s and lows in the 30s...Rain possible each day.

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**Winter Storm Potential**

.As mentioned several days ago, the potential for a major winter storm could impact the region beginning Thursday night-Sunday. Lots of questions remains with this system. So, any one model can't truly be relied on as the system is still out in the Pacific Ocean. Then once it makes landfall it will need to cross the Rockies before we can truly realize the winter potential.

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Given this, confidence is building in the forecast that a winter storm will impact the region with the potential for a potential significant ice situation over parts of MO/IL.

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.To pinpoint any particular location at this stage in the game would be irresponsible...However, preparation should be noted in the forecast as we move closer to the event and timing and better details emerge from the models.

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.Temperatures will be a huge factor at the surface, but also aloft. Warm air wants to nose into the mid levels which will create the ice potential... The questions that still need answering are how far will the warm air make it? Will cold air win out? Timing? The overall track of the low. The further north the low goes the further north the warm air goes...The further south the low goes the further south the cold air goes... So these are things we must watch over the next several days.

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.For now, the potential is increasing with each day that a winter storm is on the approach and will bring a variety of winter weather to the region...How much, temperatures, precipitation type, and timing will all need to be worked out as we get closer to the event.

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.Right now, Thursday night through Sunday is the target and we will likely see a few waves of energy during this time. Those with travel interest for Thursday night-Sunday will want to continue to watch the weather forecast for updates as fine tuning will be done over the next several days.

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.Models are still scattered, but they are coming into better agreement. Right now, let's not get caught up in any one potential model run or model because things continue to change.

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.Stay Tuned!.